The human brain is still a work in progress, but understanding its function is key to developing new technologies as well as the all-important process of building self-awareness and self-agency in the decisions that drive our everyday activities and behaviors.
How then does the brain build capacity to predict what will come next without expending so much energy that the brain may inadvertently make poor and inefficient decisions? One hypothesis states that the brain uses a "top-down" model whose learning process is designed to not only predict perceptions based on unique stimuli but also readjust when incorrect perceptions are made. In the neocortex of the brain, pyramidal neurons can receive signals from both nearby and distant neurons. Studies on these pyramidal neurons in mice have been shown to be active when given both unsurprising (as in similar patterns of information) and surprising (as in a change to the informational pattern) stimuli. These neurons engage in unique ways according to whether the information is consistent and expected as well as whether the information is inconsistent and unexpected. Which then begs the question - how does our brain predict stimuli when so much of the events that form around us are so seemingly inherently unpredictable?
The studies were designed to illuminate how the brain operates not only to make better predictions and decisions, but to make operationally optimal decisions as well. In other words, how could the brain maximize performance (i.e. decisions) without over-expending on the energy that would be required to make those optimal decisions? Minimal effort, maximum output. Life could easily be summarized according to decisions that are made based on the predictive measurements our mind makes in determining whether those decisions are based on our best interests. When I buy some ice cream, am I making that decision only because the ice cream tastes delicious? Or are there other, more unconscious elements related to my emotional state that are driving the decision? Am I predicting that the ice cream will bring happiness even though I may very likely feel worse after having that fleeting rush of dopamine to the brain? Am I deciding to buy the ice cream in spite of having the knowledge that the dopamine I get from eating some ice cream is dreadfully temporary?
All of this is to say that the thinking, perceiving and deciding that is done every day is based on a complicated array of emotional elements related to past knowledge gained from learning and experience. However, thinking and processing the how and what of a goal within a reflective space may enable the kind of decision-making that is richer and more constructive than a more impetuous and rushed decision. If I go to the store with the intention of finding some ice cream and the store no longer sells ice cream, how should I respond to the surprising twist in the drama that is my quest to buy ice cream? There are of course many options to choose from, and what I ultimately decide to do is not really the point. Rather the point is that the reflection and thinking that then goes into determining the next option to take offers a valuable opportunity to consider what is the best option for me? That opportunity, if given time and space for consideration, can lead to decisions that may impact me in unexpectedly positive ways. Or it could very possibly have a terrible impact. But overall, how do we respond to unforeseen changes to what has been predicted? If the expectation that decision A cannot occur based on prediction B, how does the mind determine that decision C based on prediction D is the next best choice? Faced with the need to change course, recalibrating the mind to consider multiple options rather than only one may lead to those optimal decisions that our brains are very capable of producing. Tapping into that capacity requires an awareness of the conscious and unconscious drivers that push us to decide between the options best suited to our interests.
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